From 1979-1981, Doug Casey’s full page ads proclaiming “the Great Depression of the 1980s” were in newspapers all over America.
His book, Crisis Investing, became the bestselling financial book in history, hit #1 on the New York Times Best Seller list, and stayed there for twelve weeks.
There was a nasty worldwide recession in the early 1980s, but nothing even close to a depression.
Did that put him out of business?
Hardly.
He’s run a lucrative consulting firm for the last 30 years and lived in twelve different countries.
In early 1987, economist Ravi Batra’s book, The Great Depression of 1990, was table talk from coast to coast.
It hit #1 on the Times Best Seller List later that year.
There was a nasty worldwide recession in the early 1990s, but nothing close to a full-fledged depression.
Did that put the damper on Professor Batra?
No.
He’s published a parade of books since, including the 1999 doomsday title, “The Crash of the Millennium.”
Casey and Batra are hardly the only prophets of doom to profit from doomsday predictions but the specificity and severity of their predictions catapulted them into the spotlight in a way others never reached.
Amusingly, some of their supporters have claimed they were right — they were just off by a few years and overstated the financial markets crash of 2008.
Most detractors label them the boys who’ve cried wolf one too many times.
The real question is…
How far in advance of a crisis can one warn of catastrophe before losing credibility?
As far as the market is concerned, there’s a surprising amount of leeway.
Sure, when a prognosticator goes “all in” and pegs a worldwide depression next year — and it doesn’t happen — there may be less TV interviews and book deals, as well as a brief hiatus for the doomsayer.
But that doesn’t put him out of business.
What is it about the power of predictions that captivates the masses… and response?
It’s simple.
People are desperately in search of certainty — so the fortune teller who paints a detailed picture (even an unpleasant one) and states when it’ll happen — will always trump the wishy-washy commentator who turns out to be far more accurate.
Is there a takeaway from this as a marketer?
Absolutely.
You don’t need to go “all in” like Casey and Batra.
Some of the most successful mailers make their bread and butter from the proclamation lead.
Interestingly, this is a lead which is hardly seen outside of financial marketing but because of its attention grabbing power, it’s worth testing in areas like health and beauty.
You can download a 3 megabyte copy of the ads in the side bar:
In the late 1990s, I wrote a DR package for a gold-trading company, warning consumers that buying gold was their only chance to avoid the armageddon and civic collapse caused by Y2K. I laid it on hard: famine, riots in the streets, roving gangs of marauders! Arrrrgggghhhh! What to do? BUY GOLD! When? NOW! Who from? THESE GUYS! The client read my copy, and then looked like I’d just handed him a live jellyfish. Too aggressive, they said. That’s what direct response is, I replied.
The package, as far as I know, never saw the light of day.
Lawrence,
As a generally optimistic person who has spent a lot of the last two decades writing copy for “doom and gloomers” (including Doug, more than a few times), I just wanted to pop in and note that that is a great insight:
“People are desperately in search of certainty — so the fortune teller who paints a detailed picture (even an unpleasant one) and states when it’ll happen — will always trump the wishy-washy commentator who turns out to be far more accurate.”
The examples you give are also terrific. They reminded me of a few more, like the monumentally successful “Plague of the Black Debt” promotion by copywriter Lee Euler, which predicted a Depression in the 1990s due to staggering U.S. debt. Of course, that’s not what happened. And the National Debt is multiples bigger now. But the promotion was so well written, it sold over 100,000 subscriptions to a financial newsletter. And the financial warnings, though wrong, identified real flaws that needed to be addressed.
And remember Y2K? Crisis averted, but that was hardly what we all thought would happen. I wrote a very successful promotion for a guy, Gary North, at the time called “The Silence of the Trains.” It followed the shutdown of the computers through all the other systems that would be impacted, from shipping and transportation networks to electrical plants and more. Luckily, he was wrong. But the promo did well and offered some big solutions people wanted at the time.
Another huge one you featured recently is “The End of America.” In the newsletter world, it might just be the most successful promotion ever written. Last I heard, it sold over 600,000 subscriptions to a $39 newsletter. Will America end? Maybe not nearly as soon as the sales copy forecasted. In some ways, things even look like they’re on the mend, albeit slowly. But those worries it identifies are there and people want to know somebody out there is looking for solutions.
In fact, if there’s anything worth adding to your insight about the craving for certainty, it’s that.
In addition to answers, people also want to have their secret worries and personal warnings validated. The predictions promotions, which I could almost say I’ve specialized in for most of my own career, build on an expectation for the future that the reader already has, consciously or otherwise. And to see it there, taken to a bold new level and proclaimed openly, gives that reader a kind of reassurance that he is not, after all, crazy to think things could really go as far as he’s been telling everyone.
Anyway, great stuff here. You must have more file cabinets full of samples in your basement than Office Depot has empty ones in their national warehouse.
JF
P.S. I’m writing a “proclamation” promo right now and I’m going to send our legal team here to read this, because they too have an irresistible desire when it comes to these kinds of headlines — which is to strip them of all the boldness that’s so essential to making them work. (As if, somehow, saying something in the news “will” happen in the future is somehow more dangerous than saying it “could” happen.)
Thanks for all the value on your blog.
One thing is that I always forget to come back here, I feel i’m not coming here often enough.. So would you consider making a simple email blog post update sign up? would be awesome!
Best,
Scott
Hi John,
Tickled that you stopped by and added a lot of substance on the topic.
I’ve been looking for “Silence of the Trains” as I mentioned in an email and not surprised that you were the author. With 13-14 years of hindsight, Y2K seems kinda comical but it was very real and I remember the industry of Y2K programmers and I.T. people who were billing at insane hourly rates to help companies get compliant.
Of course I know of the “End of America” but I didn’t know the exact numbers — Mike’s promo is a home run for the ages.
On the topic of validating peoples’ worries and world views, I guess there are a lot of cruises and conferences filled up by “end timers” and survivalists who crave other like minded men to talk to… not too many women in this market I would fancy.
Please tell the legal team that I’m on a marketing sabbatical in Aruba when they show up!